What will happen next at Holuhraun and Bárðarbunga? Three probable scenarios

A magnitude 5.1 earthquake struck at Bárðarbunga caldera around 6 this morning. With strong earthquakes hitting the big volcano in big numbers every single day for more than three months now, Icelandic geological scientists are on high alert.

According to the Icelandic Met Office more than 200 earthquakes have been detected in Bárðarbunga in the past 48 hours.

The eruption in Holuhraun shows no signs of petering out. The new lava field in Holuhraun now covers 74 square kilometers (28.6 sq. mi) and is still growing.

Holuhraun is part of the huge Bárðarbunga volcanic system. The eruption is only 5 km (3.1 mi) from Vatnajökull glacier's ice cap, with Bárðarbunga 36 km (22.4 mi) further south beneath the ice cap.

According to the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection (SAB) this is considered to be one of three scenarios most likely to occur in the area.

The three projections are:

1) The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bárðarbunga caldera stops.

2) Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujökull (outlet glacier in Vanajökull glacier), resulting in a jökulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.

3) Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jökulhlaup (glacial outburst flood), accompanied by ash fall.

SAB does not exclude other scenarios.

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